Over the last 200 years the census has enabled us to identify trends and formulate plans for the future, taken as snapshots every 10 years. For transport planners it gives an insight in to how demographic and lifestyle changes affect travel demands. We use these to plan infrastructure and services to meet needs in the built environment. But, what do you do when this planning tool has a chink in its otherwise tried and tested armour called Covid?

The 2021 Census came at a time when a large proportion of workers were working from home, when people were avoiding public transport and shoppers switched to e-commerce in greater numbers. It’s no surprise therefore that the data which has recently been released portrays a skewed version of what is now our reality, and a repeat of data collection would be cost prohibitive.

Prior to Covid, statistics suggested an ageing population of staunch drivers were planning or starting to retire changing travel demand as younger people were learning to drive later and living closer to their place of work. During Covid 8m people were on furlough, significant numbers worked from home and public transport demand broadly halved.

Post-Covid, working from home has become a lifestyle choice enabling some to work further away from their place of work and altering some of the pre-Covid trend. At the same time, hybrid working is being sustained for large swathes of the workforce, thus we can conclude these trends will take time to settle. So how can you predict and plan on a census that is clearly marked by its timing, and a present where people’s hybrid working patterns change travel demand like shifting sands?

The recent census data release confirmed many of the long-term trends we’ve seen and forecast, accelerating some and altering others. Car ownership levels are stabilising, with variations consistent with household demographics and accessibility. The data gaps and uncertainties affect travel demands, mode choice and distribution. This may increase reliance on strategic transport models but will also serve to accelerate the ‘Decide and Provide’ approach to forecasting transport needs in line with recent Local Transport Plans and climate action plans.

We’ve been leading the way on active travel; generating a toolkit of measures as we work towards 20-minute neighbourhoods. Building on evidence and experience we continue to create better places through great design. At this stage we anticipate that data gaps will require the industry to combine data sets like the National Travel Survey to play our part in the creation of sustainable development. We are already analysing available data sources to address the census uncertainty, working with public and private partners to deliver bespoke solutions for sustainable communities.

We firmly believe that census uncertainty will accelerate the adoption of ‘Decide & Provide’ forecasts as we work towards Net-Zero. This will enable us to deliver sustainable development and healthier lifestyles, by aligning green-infrastructure as part of local transport networks.

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